Mar 31 2009
On Butterfly Wings and Dust in the Wind
When chaos theory first became popular years ago, this was the most common example used to illustrate how dynamic and complex systems — such as the weather — can be sensitive to sometimes minute influences: a butterfly flapping its wings near the coast of Africa can trigger a tropical storm in the Atlantic that eventually blossoms into a hurricane that hammers Florida.
Damn those African butterflies!
While there may be a tidbit of truth to the butterfly scenario, there is another type of minute, far-away influence that is more likely having an influence on Florida weather. Dust particles. In particular -
The recent warming trend in the Atlantic Ocean is largely due to reductions in airborne dust and volcanic emissions during the past 30 years, according to a new study.
Less dust particles means more sunshine means warmer water means greater likelihood of more and stronger tropical storms and hurricanes. Why is there less dust in the wind today? Fewer, less severe dust storms in arid Africa.
Change one variable — wind storms on one continent — and in an almost magical fashion, there arises dramatic changes in other variables: hurricanes hitting another continent. Almost magical.
A paragraph in the source article appropriately warns:
Satellite research of dust-storm activity is relatively young, and no one yet understands what drives dust variability from year to year. However, the fundamental role of the temperature of the tropical North Atlantic in hurricane formation and intensity means that this element will be critical to developing a better understanding of how the climate and storm patterns may change.
Ain’t science cool? (Or windy, if you prefer.)
