Jul 31 2009
Alcohol, Marriage, and So Many Variables
When I see simplistic, one-size-fits-all, plans for perfect physical health and/or optimal mental happiness, my bologna detector goes off. Unfortunately, health is a very complex topic. Part of the complexity is a lag time between cause and effect. It can take days, weeks, months, and even many years for health to take a turn for the worse or better. What’s more, a singular black-and-white use of the word cause can be problematic. Why? It is nearly impossible to isolate single variables. And effects can have multiple causes, as can causes have multiple effects.
Consider the findings from the following two studies.
1. Regular moderate alcohol intake has cognitive benefits in older adults
While I don’t outright doubt a link between the two variables, I wonder if “moderate alcohol intake” can be cleanly isolated from others. Lifestyle factors can come in clusters, one factor confoundingly entwined with others.
2. Couples who cohabit before engagement are more likely to struggle
Accurate science is reductionistic in methodology. So in the above study we find a link between two variables: cohabitation and marital harmony/strife. Yet we must not be overly simplistic when we evaluate results. Does the above mean that cohabitation causes marital strife? Well, no, it doesn’t. While it may suggest it, we have to remember that other factors are likely involved. Personality traits and relationship dynamics for two. Because this wasn’t an experiment, with couples randomly assigned to either cohabit before marriage or not, we cannot know who decides to cohabit under what circumstances.
This second study did include a questionnaire element, in which subjects were asked about the reasons they decided to cohabit before marriage. These I would take with a huge grain of salt because people are far from perfectly aware of why they do what they do.
In summary, simplistic answers are appealing. But our world is a very complex one.
